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JWFX Tutorials and Consultations.

I am open to consultations and private online sessions for those who may want to add more tools to their trading armory or to get a second opinion on a macro situation. 

Contact JWTRADINGFX@GMAIL.COM for more information.

If you are interested in finding the ultimate game - look no further.

  • The global currency markets are the most liquid in the world, with over $4 Trillion of volume daily.
  • It is like playing a dynamic and organic game of chess. Multiple players, infinte possibilities - and an indiscriminate judge. 
  • Learning to trade will not only stimulate your mind but will teach you self-control, lightning quick event analysis, a grasp of mass psychology and strategy.

I will give you all the tools to create your own strategy. There is a pool of billions of dollars out there and I can give you the straw to get your sip with.  If you dedicate time and energy to the art of trading, you can supplement your income whilst stimulating your mind beyond the realms of normal consciousness. I will teach you my theory of collective perception and how you can easily recognise recurrent patterns in price action so you can position yourself for the maximum risk-reward ratio.

If you are interested in furthering your horizons, whether you are a window cleaner of an equities trader - email JWTRADINGFX@GMAIL.COM for further details.

Kindest regards,

Jack Walker

John Maudlin on Labour market deficiencies

“Strictly speaking, the U.S. economy has technically transitioned from recovery to expansion. Total real GDP at present is 1.7 percent larger than its prerecession peak. However, many parts of the economy are struggling to get back to previous highs. Perhaps nowhere is this deficiency more evident than in the labor market. The U.S. economy lost 8.8 million jobs in the recession but has only recouped roughly 3.8 million of those lost jobs (Figure 3). That leaves an “employment deficit” of roughly five million jobs. Try telling one of these five million people that the economy has transitioned from recovery to expansion.” - John Maudlin

Figure 3 from "Orders and Production: No Time for Complacency - Wells Fargo Securities, Economics Group"

Well said Mr.Maudlin

A quick note on Eurozone analysis & sentiment warped fundamentals

Several weeks ago I wrote a short essay on the Eurozone and what policies I would prescribe to maximise the chances of recovery (Rather than an assurance; as even with the perfect policy - It would not necessarily create the conditions to bring about a recovery). 

Quite soon after finishing this piece the situation in the EZ changed. Specifically, how the market recieved Mario Monti’s promise to protect the Euro. In fact, they loved it, lapping up like cats to the cream. Risk currencies rose, pressures dropped off the Euro, interest rates plummeted across the EZ etc. 

Because the banks, funds etc bought into this speech, this will have a big impact on how the underlying reality will develop in conjunction with the crowd sentiment and therefore market risk factors. NB: The risk factors which are most responsive to swings in collective sentiment are credit and currency. Beyond these two immediate risk areas we have systemic banking risks, corporate risk factors and the social impact of the economic perception. 

I will start to re-write the piece but in the meantime bare in mind that the crowd’s perception is more relevant than the underlying ‘fundamentals’. I also need to take a look at options figures - Could give a better indication of what is playing out.

If you are a pure fundamentalist, I hope you have a lot of slack.

Good hunting,

JW

Back at the desk - What’s to look forward to this week

  • General sentiment is pointing towards a slightly weaker USD.
  • Euro strength is likely to continue from Friday’s rally. A lot of this crowd sentiment is linked to Spanish bond yields, which will need to stay low to keep fear at bay.
  • AUDUSD may have found a resistance zone. The 12mth forecast through AUD swaps is currently 75 bps, nearly the least bearish in four months. I will trade the commodity currencies according to the Raff-Regression breakout strategy and long term channel levels. AUD hinges on Eurozone, Labour numbers, and the RBA announcement.
  • NZDUSD (like the AUDUSD) may have found a top of the rally, but NZD has the added sentiment fuel from it’s stronger growth prospects, which may lead to some divergence of the two pairs in the near term.
  • GBPUSD will hinge on the inflation report, my overall thoughts are bearish on the pair along with many economic forecasters who are unanimously expecting growth forecast downgrades from the BoE. But as always, I’ll trade it as I see it.

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